Re-Thinking Expropriation In The Age Of Climate Transition: A Central Asian Perspective On Investment Arbitration

Abstract

This paper analyzes the implications of Central Asia’s green transition for investor-State dispute settlement, with a particular focus on expropriation claims. In recent years, Central Asian countries have pledged to shift from fossil fuels to a green economy, adopting national strategies and promoting sustainable development in line with global commitments. However, most investment treaties governing foreign investment remain unchanged, creating potential conflicts between climate policies and investor protections. Given the region’s significant foreign investment in fossil fuel industries, abrupt regulatory changes could lead to claims under international investment agreements, particularly for indirect expropriation. This study analyzes why such claims may arise and proposes measures for the Central Asian States to implement to mitigate legal risks while promoting sustainability